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The North Carolina Tar Heels make their return to the NCAA Tournament after a one-year absence when they square off against the Wagner Seahawks in a first-round matchup on Thursday at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. Last season, North Carolina missed the tournament for the first time since 2010 despite entering the year as the preseason No. 1 team. This year, the Tar Heels (27-7) are the No. 1 seed in the West Region after winning the ACC regular season title. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (17-15) are playing in the NCAA Tournament for just the second time in program history and first since 2003.

Tipoff is scheduled for 2:45 p.m. ET. The Tar Heels are favored by 25.5 points in the latest North Carolina vs. Wagner odds via SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 133.5. Before making any Wagner vs. North Carolina picks, you need to check out the college basketball analysis from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Div. I college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2024 NCAA tournament on a 148-106 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning more than $1,700 for $100 players. It also has a strong 29-19 (+810) record on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on UNC vs. Wagner. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are several college basketball betting lines and trends for Wagner vs. UNC:

North Carolina vs. Wagner spread: Tar Heels -25.5
North Carolina vs. Wagner over/under: 133.5 points
North Carolina vs. Wagner money line: Tar Heels -6186, Seahawks +1975
UNC: The Tar Heels are eighth in the nation in rebounds per game (41.2)
WAG: The Seahawks rank seventh in the country in scoring defense (62.3 points per game)
North Carolina vs. Wagner picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why North Carolina can cover
North Carolina has a dominant big man in Armando Bacot. The 6-foot-11 Bacot is averaging 14.1 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. He ranks ninth all-time in Div. I history in rebounds (1,681) and fourth in double-doubles (85). Led by Bacot, North Carolina averages 41.2 rebounds per game, which ranks eighth in the country.

In addition, the Tar Heels will face a Wagner team that has struggled offensively all season. The Seahawks rank 343rd out of 351 Div. I teams in both scoring offense (63.8 points per game) and field goal percentage (39.6). See who to back at SportsLine.

Why Wagner can cover
Wagner has been playing excellent defense all season. The Seahawks allow just 62.3 points per game, which ranks seventh in the country. They also give up just 29.5% shooting on 3-pointers, which is eighth in the nation.

In addition, Wagner has a do-it-all player in guard Melvin Council Jr. A 6-foot-4 junior guard from Rochester, N.Y., Council averages 14.8 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. Earlier this month, he was named a first-team All-NEC player. See who to back at SportsLine.

How to make North Carolina vs. Wagner picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 137 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. You can see the picks only at SportsLine.

Long Beach State athletic director Bobby Smitheran on Thursday took partial credit for the team’s Big West Tournament run that culminated with an NCAA Tournament automatic bid last week, saying he fired coach Dan Monson before the conference tournament in an effort to inspire the team. Speaking with reporters ahead of the No. 15 seed LBSU’s first round game vs. No. 2 seed Arizona, which tips at 2:00 p.m. ET on CBS, Smitheran claimed he wanted no credit … before taking credit … for the unexpected late-season rally.

“My belief and hope is that by doing what I did and the timing of it, they would play inspired, and that’s what they did,” said Smitheran. “I’m not trying to pat myself on the back, but it worked.”

Long Beach State parted ways with Monson, its long-time coach of nearly two decades after the regular season but allowed him the courtesy to coach out the postseason. The team then won three games in three days in the Big West Tournament to secure the league’s automatic NCAA Tournament berth.

“I don’t have to answer anything I don’t want to because I’m working for free today,” quipped Monson on Wednesday in his pre-tournament presser. “Did you see the ‘Seinfeld’ [episode] when George was trying to get fired and couldn’t lose his job, still going to work every day? That’s me. I’m a Seinfeld episode going on right now in real life.”

Monson and his LBSU team are 19.5-point underdogs to Arizona on Thursday, but his team has been one of the talks of the town leading into the NCAA Tournament because of the unique circumstance. Smitheran told the AP that the situation has been overblown, though, and even suggested that it was Monson’s idea.

“I think this is really getting lost on people, that we agreed that a change in leadership was necessary,” Smitheran said. “This was something Coach Monson brought to me.”

Long Beach State finished 10-10 in regular-season conference play and lost its final five games before its run through the Big West Tournament. It enters the NCAA Tournament 21-14 and is making its first appearance in the Big Dance since 2012.